Ontario shoppers turn to chicken as beef prices climb, athletes feel pinch

Some Ontario grocery shoppers are switching from beef to chicken as prices for red meat rise. People on strict athletic diets report having less flexibility to change their spending. A Capital Current analysis of Statistics Canada data found beef prices have increased far more than poultry prices since 2024. Joel Orlik, owner of Wellington Butchery, has observed this shift among his customers. "Yeah, a little bit less steak, a little more chicken. They look for a cheaper protein," Orlik said.

Orlik said his shop matches supermarket prices for ground beef and chicken. He noted his ground beef contains less water, offering more protein for the same cost. While his customers value quality, he tries to balance affordability. Analyst Kevin Grier said high beef prices are driven by limited supply and strong demand. The North American cattle herd has declined dramatically over the past seven years, reducing beef availability.

"There's just less beef available, so consumption has flatlined, whereas there's more chicken, so chicken consumption has gone up," Grier said. He said consumer and restaurant demand for beef remains strong despite the higher prices. Grier does not expect a quick recovery in supply. "We probably won't start to see more beef supply until 2028 or 2029," he said. Statistics Canada figures show beef prices became disproportionately more expensive than poultry in Ontario starting in May 2024.

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Student athlete Zach Duaibes manages costs by buying protein in bulk and freezing portions. He typically purchases about three kilograms of chicken, two kilograms of beef and a kilo of turkey weekly at Costco. Price increases sometimes force him to adjust his choices. "Sometimes I buy just ground beef and turkey instead of all three options. I prefer to buy the extra-lean ground turkey without the chicken because I want to save money," Duaibes said. He works as a teaching assistant to help cover his expenses.

Physique competitor Sarah Roberge follows a coach-prescribed meal plan that limits her ability to substitute cheaper proteins. "Overall, my hands were tied when it came to price fluctuations as little adjustments could be made to my intake," Roberge said. She buys meat in bulk at Costco to manage costs. When specific items like extra-lean ground beef were unavailable, she purchased smaller quantities at higher prices. "Trying to find the best option for the product, like extra lean ground beef, for the best price sometimes wasn't possible," she said.

During her competition preparation, Roberge's protein choices shifted based on her plan, with chicken breast and basa becoming more prominent. She paid about $5 a pound for those items compared to about $10 a pound for extra-lean ground beef. Buying in bulk helped reduce costs, but high-quality protein was more expensive than she anticipated. When she had to buy lean instead of extra-lean ground beef, the higher calorie content meant smaller portions, which left her hungrier. Her coach adjusted her plan by adding more chicken breast.

"So did my protein intake change? No. It did, however, mean I was having to buy more chicken breast until the extra ground beef was available again, and I was hungrier throughout the day," Roberge said. For Duaibes, higher prices mean incorporating more turkey. For Roberge, following her diet meant absorbing the extra cost. "Thankfully, I was financially able to make the accommodations in order to follow the plan," she said.

With files from Capital Current