Traditional Thanksgiving turkey dinner to cost 10 percent more in Ontario

The cost of a traditional turkey dinner for a family of four in Ontario is expected to rise 10 percent this year to $35.72, according to a new report.

The annual Thanksgiving analysis by the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University estimates the meal will cost $11.16 per adult and $6.70 per child.

"Our analysis does not establish that stores are offering fewer promotions or identify a specific supply or production-cost issue behind that difference," said Sylvain Charlebois, senior director for the lab, in an email to Metroland.

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"It is a comparison of selected prices, rather than a measure of turkey inflation across the market."

Charlebois said consumers may still find better deals by visiting stores and finding unadvertised specials.

The report found turkey remains the cheapest Thanksgiving protein this year, despite facing the sharpest price increase.

Ham is the closest budget alternative, while lamb and lobster are considerably more expensive.

The estimate includes side dishes of potatoes, carrots, dinner rolls, pumpkin pie, cranberries, stuffing and gravy.

The turkey price used in this year's estimate is $1.79 per pound, compared with a promotional price of $1.49 per pound used last year.

The analysis indicates a seven-pound turkey will cost $2.10 more this year.

One pound of carrots, which cost 91 cents last year, has risen to $1.65 in this year's estimate.

The five other side dishes add 40 cents to the bill under the assumption of a 2.8 percent increase, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report from Statistics Canada.

A 10-pound bag of potatoes remains unchanged from 2025 at $6.99.

For carrots, the 2025 price estimate used a promotional per-pound price, while the 2026 figure is based on half the observed median price of a two-pound bag.

The study authors noted the increase does not show that carrots saw an 81 percent inflation rate for a comparable product at a comparable store.

Promotions and product characteristics may affect comparisons of average prices, the study authors said.

Researchers calculated prices for ham, lamb, and lobster meals using overall food consumer price increase statistics without establishing the causes of high prices specific to each protein.

Study authors noted lobster prices can vary by size and local market.

The per-adult and per-child figures allocate the total cost across 3.2 equivalent portions: one portion per adult and 0.6 of a portion per child.

They do not represent the price of an individual food basket.

The calculation reflects the purchases required for a typical household, including leftovers.

According to Statistics Canada, prices for food purchased from stores increased 2.8 percent in August, down from the 3.1 percent seen in July.

But although grocery prices decelerated in August, prices have increased 29 percent since August 2021.

With files from Inside Halton and Guelph Mercury-Tribune